Researchers recently dove into the complex answer behind the question of whether or not the United States or China holds more influence in the Indo-Pacific Region, according to a research brief from the RAND Corporation.
In 2018 and 2019, RAND researchers studied Chinese and U.S. relations with nine Indo-Pacific countries. The team corresponded with government officials and other experts, and studied reports, official documents and data on U.S. and Chinese activity.
The RAND group sought to answer four questions:
What are influence and competition for influence?
To answer this question, the researchers found that U.S. and Chinese influence over other nations is determined by interests that the former two countries share with others, and what resources China and the U.S. can use to coerce or incentivize allies.
What are the United States and China competing over?
The visions for Indo-Pacific nations differ between the U.S. and China. While America tends to hope for security, openness and regional freedom, China focuses on expanding its own power, rooting a regional dependance on China and lessening the role of outside powers. The nations that these two countries are competing most intensely include the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. Additionally, the study found that competition is most fierce when priorities overlap between China and the United States.
How can relative influence be measured and assessed?
The RAND Corporation used a system of 14 variables to gauge how Indo-Pacific nations see influence. Six of the variables measure relative military, economic and diplomatic capabilities that China and America offer, and the other eight focus on the nation's shared interests with these two competing countries.
How do regional countries view the United States and China?
The RAND analysis concluded that the U.S. and China have varying strengths and competitive strategies. Researchers found that the U.S. holds more military and diplomatic influence over Indo-Pacific nations than China, but that the latter nation holds more economic sway.
Countries in this region are also less concerned about Chinese military than they are Chinese economic influence, RAND stated. There was little evidence to state that these Southeast Asian nations believe that the American military influence could act as a counterweight to the economic grip of China.
All in all, the RAND Corporation found that a simple answer is unlikely, with the countries of the Indo-Pacific region not wanting to choose between the U.S. and China.
However, the researchers said that, if these nations are forced to pick, they may not choose the United States.
"Partner alignment is likely to be weak and incomplete," the study said.
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